Find My Spot Chatham-Kent

Know a location before you commit

Start with where. Then tell us what you want to open, or which business you are thinking of buying: you get the customers, their spending, the real competitors and the money check in one report.

1Where?
2What?
โš™๏ธ Adjust: business type, niche, circle size
Circle size
โœจ Not in Chatham-Kent yet:

๐Ÿ—บ๏ธ Your area

Drag to pan ยท Ctrl/โŒ˜ + scroll or pinch to zoom ยท click any dot for details ยท streets ยฉ OpenStreetMap contributors via Overture

๐Ÿ“‹ Site report

For the business, area and radius picked at the top. Print it or save it as a PDF to share.

Chatham-Kent vault/Site reports/โ€”

๐Ÿ’ฐWill it make money?

Would this spot cover your costs? Starting numbers are averages for small Canadian businesses of this type (ISED, โ€”). Replace them with your own quotes: the check updates as you type.

More assumptions
โ€”

โ€”

How this is worked out

โ€”

๐ŸชWho are you up against?

โ€”

โ€”

Competitors near the spotDistanceTypeCompetes?
๐Ÿ’ฐ Main spenders

โ€”

๐Ÿ“Better spots in Chatham-Kent

โ€”

โ€”

๐Ÿ‘ฅWho are your customers?

๐Ÿง‘โ€๐Ÿคโ€๐Ÿง‘ Who's around
    All figures for the circle
    ๐Ÿ“‚ More detail: spending, competition, foot traffic and how the verdict was scored

    ๐Ÿ“At a glance

    ๐Ÿ“ In short

    โ€”

    ๐Ÿ’ณLocal spending on this, per year
    โ€”
    โ€”
    ๐ŸชCompetitors in the circle
    โ€”
    โ€”
    ๐ŸฅงFair-share sales for a newcomer
    โ€”
    โ€”
    ๐ŸšถActivity (foot-traffic proxy)
    โ€”
    โ€”
    ๐Ÿ‘ฅPeople in the circle, 2026
    โ€”
    โ€”

    ๐Ÿ’ณSpending power

    ๐Ÿ’ก What it means for you

    โ€”

    โ€”

    ๐ŸชCompetition in the circle

    โš”๏ธ The competitive picture

    โ€”

    Nearest competitorsDistanceConfidence

    ๐ŸšถFoot traffic

    โš ๏ธ Proxy, not a count

    How many businesses and traffic anchors (supermarkets, big-box stores, banks, pharmacies, LCBO, coffee chains) sit near the spot, ranked against every block in the region, plus modelled daytime workers. Licensed mobility data would replace this with real visit counts.

    ๐Ÿ“ŠHow the verdict was scored

    SignalReadingWhat it meansPoints

    โ€”

    ๐Ÿ“š Data & methods every number behind the report

    Chatham-Kent at a glance

    โ€”

    People, July 2026 (projected)
    โ€”
    Range โ€” to โ€”
    Growth since 2021
    โ€”
    vs StatCan's July 2021 estimate
    Aged 65+
    โ€”
    โ€” people aged 75+
    Households, 2026
    โ€”
    โ€” rent their home
    Typical household income
    โ€”
    2020 Census, in today's dollars

    Inside the circle, in detail

    Inside the circle

    โ€”
    People, 2026
    โ€”
    Growth since 2021
    โ€”
    Households
    โ€”
    Children 0โ€“14
    โ€”
    Adults 25โ€“44
    โ€”
    Aged 65+
    โ€”
    People aged 75+
    โ€”
    Typical household income
    โ€”
    Low income (LIM-AT)
    โ€”
    Renters
    โ€”
    Immigrants
    โ€”
    Moved in the last year
    โ€”
    Blocks counted
    โ€”
    Lower-confidence blocks
    โ€”

    โ€”

    Supportable at peer density
    โ€”
    At Chatham-Kent's own density
    โ€”
    Already there (counted)
    โ€”
    Plus unconfirmed listings
    โ€”
    Room vs peer density
    โ€”

    โ€”

    Inside the circleConfidenceSources

    Shares are weighted by people or households. Income is the household-weighted average of each block's median. A block is lower-confidence when its projected growth tops 25%: it rests on a small Census sample of new homes. "Supportable" is the circle's 2026 population ร— the peer median rate for the business type picked below; "Already there" counts mapped locations inside the circle. "Room" puts the peer benchmark in mapped-location terms and subtracts them. A town-centre circle often shows negative room because it also serves the rural catchment around it: compare circles across a town and look for the areas with room.

    Is there room for another one?

    For any business type: Chatham-Kent's businesses with employees (StatCan, June 2026) per 10,000 residents, against the median of eight comparable Ontario municipalities. The type you pick here also drives the trade-area finder above.

    โ€”

    In Chatham-Kent now
    โ€”
    businesses with employees
    People per business
    โ€”
    2025 population
    Supply vs peers
    โ€”
    1.00ร— = peer median
    Gap at peer density
    โ€”
    businesses
    Counted locations
    โ€”
    โ€”

    Biggest gaps vs peers

    Local business types where CK has fewest per resident, ranked by how many more peer density implies. Click a row to select it.

    Business typeCKCK /10kPeers /10kvs peersRoom for

    Most crowded vs peers

    Local business types where CK already has more per resident than its peers. These are counts of businesses, not their size: a doctor's or contractor's own corporation counts as one business, so a high count can mean many small firms rather than easy access.

    Business typeCKCK /10kPeers /10kvs peersAbove peers

    Towns and their catchments

    "Town" counts the blocks mostly inside StatCan's population-centre boundary. "Town + rural catchment" adds every rural block whose nearest town it is: closer to how a small-town store actually draws customers.

    Area2021 count2026 est. Growth0โ€“1465+ 75+ peopleHouseholdsTypical income RentersLow income

    The age mix is shifting older and younger at once

    Change in each age group, StatCan July 2021 estimate to the 2026 projection.

    Chatham-Kent grows on its own steady track

    Annual population growth to each July. Ontario's swings came mostly from temporary residents, who largely bypassed CK.

    How the estimates are built

    Method

    1. Start from the Census. All 269 dissemination areas (blocks of a few hundred people) in Chatham-Kent, from the 2021 Census Profile: โ€” people counted.
    2. Add back people the Census missed. StatCan's July 2021 estimate is higher than the count; every block is scaled by โ€”.
    3. Set the 2026 total top-down. CK's own average growth over the last three years, applied to StatCan's July 2025 estimate of โ€”. Low case: CK slows as much as Ontario did this year (โ€”% provincial growth). High case: CK repeats last year.
    4. Spread growth bottom-up. A share of โ€” of the growth goes to blocks in proportion to the homes built there in 2016โ€“21 (subdivisions keep building out); the rest spreads with existing population.
    5. Age everyone forward five years, then rake each block so CK's totals match StatCan's age-group estimates, extended one year.
    6. Restate 2020 incomes in today's dollars with Ontario CPI (factor โ€”). Blocks where StatCan suppressed income take their catchment's average.
    7. Daytime population. Census 2021 place of work (StatCan 98-10-0491) counts jobs located in CK by industry, but only for CK as a whole. Each industry's jobs are spread over blocks by mapped workplaces of that kind (hospitals, schools, plants, stores, offices, weighted by typical size) and partly by where workers live; farm jobs follow rural land. Residents who leave for a usual workplace come from each block's Census profile. Daytime population = residents โˆ’ those who leave + jobs located there. A modelled guide, not a count; students and visitors are not included.
    8. Checked against Environics (Nov 2026). Compared with Environics Analytics' 2026 estimates (via Esri Business Analyst) for postal areas N7L and N7M and all of Chatham-Kent, all 27 measures came within 10%: population, households and tenure within about 2%, typical household income within 2%, and health care and personal care spending per household within 3โ€“7%. Environics projects incomes growing faster than inflation; spending now includes its real-growth figure for Chatham-Kent (+3.5% since 2020, adding 1โ€“4% to restaurant, retail and recreation spending).

    Back-test: predicting each year from the three before it

    CK's own trend versus a method tied to Ontario's growth. Error against StatCan's published estimate.

    YearStatCanCK trendCK trend errorOntario-linked error

    Check: blocks vs official 2021 town counts

    Edge blocks straddle town lines; Wheatley and Tilbury extend into neighbouring municipalities.

    TownOfficialSum of blocksDifference

    Inputs and assumptions

    InputValueSource

    Not yet in the model: planning applications by address and foot traffic. Block-level growth is indicative; town and catchment totals are steadier.

    How complete are the mapped locations?

    Business locations merge four sources, matched by name and distance so each business is counted once: OpenStreetMap (ยฉ OpenStreetMap contributors, ODbL; 1 June 2026 snapshot), Overture Maps Places (21 Oct 2026 release; CDLA-Permissive-2.0, with Foursquare records under Apache-2.0 and AllThePlaces under CC0), the Ontario Ministry of Health service provider locations (retail pharmacies, long-term care and licensed retirement homes; Open Government Licence โ€“ Ontario; current to 24 Apr 2026) and the AGCO list of cannabis stores authorized to open (updated 26 Oct 2026). For pharmacies, cannabis stores and care homes the official register is the list of record: map listings that match no register entry are dropped. Each place carries a confidence: verified (on an official register), confirmed (found by two map sources), likely (one source, or Overture confidence โ‰ฅ 0.77) and possible (one low-confidence listing, often home-based or stale: shown on the map but not counted). Coverage compares counted places with StatCan's businesses with employees; above 100% is normal because maps also hold one-person businesses, kiosks and branches. Licence notices: all sources ยท Foursquare NOTICE ยท Apache 2.0. Map data ยฉ OpenStreetMap contributors, ยฉ Overture Maps Foundation.

    Business typeCountedUnconfirmedStatCanCoverageRatingBefore (OSM only)

    Peer municipalities for business supply

    Single-tier rural municipalities like CK, plus mid-size Southwestern and Eastern Ontario cities. Business counts are StatCan's Canadian Business Counts (businesses with employees, June 2026) by NAICS industry; one-person businesses without employees are not published at this level. Rates use July 2025 populations for every place.

    MunicipalityPopulation 2025Businesses with employees